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하계의 일 최고 오존농도 예측을 위한 신경망모델의 개발
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  • 하계의 일 최고 오존농도 예측을 위한 신경망모델의 개발
  • Development of Neural Network Model for Pridiction of Daily Maximum Ozone Concentration in Summer
저자명
김용국,이종범
간행물명
大氣保全 : 韓國大氣保全學會誌
권/호정보
1994년|10권 4호|pp.224-232 (9 pages)
발행정보
한국대기환경학회
파일정보
정기간행물|
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이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
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기타언어초록

A new neural network model has been developed to predict short-term air pollution concentration. In addition, a multiple regression model widely used in statistical analysis was tested. These models were applied for prediction of daily maximum ozone concentration in Seoul during the summer season of 1991. The time periods between May and September 1989 and 1990 were utilized to train set of learning patterns in neural network model, and to estimate multiple regression model. To evaluate the results of the different models, several Performance indices were used. The results indicated that the multiple regression model tended to underpredict the daily maximum ozone concentration with small r$^{2}$(0.38). Also, large errors were found in this model; 21.1 ppb for RMSE, 0.324 for NMSE, and -0.164 for MRE. On the other hand, the results obtained from the neural network model were very promising. Thus, we can know that this model has a prominent efficiency in the adaptive control for the non-linear multi- variable systems such as photochemical oxidants. Also, when the recent new information was added in the neural network model, prediction accuracy was increased. From the new model, the values of RMSE, NMSE and r$^{2}$ were 13.2ppb, 0.089, 0.003 and 0.55 respectively.