Human reliability attempts to make precise quantitative analyses and predictions of the performance of human-machine(or product) systems. In order to yield more precise human error analysis, precise human error probabilities(HEPs) must be used in the analysis. However, because human behavior is influenced by factors that are called performance shaping factors(PSFs), the effects of PSFs must be considered to obtain precise HEPs, These are called basic HEPs or situation-specific HEPs. This paper presents a theoretical method for obtaining basic HEPs (i.e. , considering PSFs) in quantitative human error analysis. In this method, the weight which characterizes the degree of importance of several PSFs is obtained by the analytic hierarchy process. The quality scores of PSFs in the task situation are obtained by percentile concept. These scores are used in conjunction with the relative Importance weights of PSFs to compute the composite quality percentile score of PSFs in the task situation. Then, a new mapping method of the composite quality percentile score of PSFs into a situation-specific basic HEP is proposed with a numerical example.