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Extended Forecasts of a Stock Index using Learning Techniques : A Study of Predictive Granularity and Input Diversity
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  • Extended Forecasts of a Stock Index using Learning Techniques : A Study of Predictive Granularity and Input Diversity
  • Extended Forecasts of a Stock Index using Learning Techniques : A Study of Predictive Granularity and Input Diversity
저자명
이동윤,Kim. Steven H.,Lee. Dong-Yun
간행물명
경영정보학연구
권/호정보
1997년|7권 1호|pp.67-83 (17 pages)
발행정보
한국경영정보학회
파일정보
정기간행물|ENG|
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이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
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기타언어초록

The utility of learning techniques in investment analysis has been demonstrated in many areas, ranging from forecasting individual stocks to entire market indexes. To date, however, the application of artificial intelligence to financial forecasting has focused largely on short predictive horizons. Usually the forecast window is a single period ahead; if the input data involve daily observations, the forecast is for one day ahead; if monthly observations, then a month ahead; and so on. Thus far little work has been conducted on the efficacy of long-term prediction involving multiperiod forecasting. This paper examines the impact of alternative procedures for extended prediction using knowledge discovery techniques. One dimension in the study involves temporal granularity: a single jump from the present period to the end of the forecast window versus a web of short-term forecasts involving a sequence of single-period predictions. Another parameter relates to the numerosity of input variables: a technical approach involving only lagged observations of the target variable versus a fundamental approach involving multiple variables. The dual possibilities along each of the granularity and numerosity dimensions entail a total of 4 models. These models are first evaluated using neural networks, then compared against a multi-input jump model using case based reasoning. The computational models are examined in the context of forecasting the S&P 500 index.