Dam sediment can be predicted from the two methods: the one is a physical analysis based on the hydrjulic mechanism and the other is an empirical approach using observed data as a design factor. The former can be used to estimate short-term phenomena by mathematical methods. the latter can be used for deriving long-term design parameters such as dead storage calculation. Monthly reservoir operation is possible with the sluicing efficiency curve based on empirical data. The optimal sediment management can be carried out using the information variable which traces deposit sediments corresponding to the reservoir storage. The idea can provide an optimal operation strategy to save effective storage varying with time. This study presents a methodology for the long-term sediment prediction using sluicing efficiency curve. An application is conducted for estimating accumulated sedment deposit and water supply capability ofr the Fenhe dam in the Yellow rever of China Keywords:dam sediment, capacity change, sluicing efficiency, optimal operation