- 신경망을 이용한 산업주가수익율의 예측
- Industry Stock Returns Prediction Using Neural Networks
- ㆍ 저자명
- 권영삼,한인구,Kwon. Young-Sam,Han. In-Goo
- ㆍ 간행물명
- 경영정보학연구
- ㆍ 권/호정보
- 1999년|9권 3호|pp.93-110 (18 pages)
- ㆍ 발행정보
- 한국경영정보학회
- ㆍ 파일정보
- 정기간행물| PDF텍스트
- ㆍ 주제분야
- 기타
The previous studies regarding the stock returns have advocated that industry effects exist over entire industry. As the industry categories are more rigid, the demand for predicting the industry sectors is rapidly increasing. The advances in Artificial Intelligence and Neural Networks suggest the feasibility of a valuable computational model for stock returns prediction. We propose a sector-factor model for predicting the return on industry stock index using neural networks. As a substitute for the traditional models, neural network model may be more accurate and effective alternative when the dynamics between the underlying industry features are not well known or when the industry specific asset pricing equation cannot be solved analytically. To assess the potential value of neural network model, we simulate the resulting network and show that the proposed model can be used successfully for banks and general construction industry. For comparison, we estimate models using traditional statistical method of multiple regression. To illustrate the practical relevance of neural network model, we apply it to the predictions of two industry stock indexes from 1980 to 1995.