Welding quality is closely related to the arc state. So, it is very important to estimate the arc state in real time. In the short circuit transfer region of CO2 are welding, the spatter , as it is well known, is mainly generated on an instance of short circuit or on an instance that the are is ignited after short circuit, or on the cases of an instantaneous short circuit. If the short circuit period or the arc time is irregular, the spatter is generated more than it is regular. Thus there is a close relationship of the amount of the spatter generation with the arc stability. In this paper, to develop the index for estimating the arc stability in short circuit transfer range Of CO2 arc welding, the welding current and are voltage waveforms were measured and the spatter generated was captured and measured. The correlation analysis of the measured amount of the spatter with the factors (the components and the standard deviations of the components) was performed, and the factors that have a considerable influence on the spatter generation among all factors were selected. And some cases of models consisted of the factors were presented, and a mathematical index model which can make an estimation the amount of the spatter from these models with multiple regression analysis. Also, it was compared how much the amount of the spatter generated under the selected welding conditions do these index models fit, and the index model to estimate the arc stability which represent the spatter generation most appropriately was developed