The purpose of this study is to estimate the stochastic monthly runoff model for the Kunwi south station of Wi-stream basin in Nakdong river system. This model was based on the theory of Box-Jenkins multiplicative ARlMA and the state-space model to simulate changes of monthly runoff. The forecasting monthly runoff from the pair of estimated effective rainfall and observed value of runoff in the uniform interval was given less standard error then the analysis only by runoff, so this study was more rational forecasting by the use of effective rainfall and runoff. This paper analyzed the records of monthly runoff and effective rainfall, and applied the multiplicative ARlMA model and state-space model. For the P value of V AR(P) model to establish state-space theory, it used Ale value by lag time and VARMA model were established that it was findings to the constituent unit of state-space model using canonical correction coefficients. Therefore this paper confirms that state space model is very significant related with optimization factors of VARMA model.