Analysis of historical and experimental data collected in Jiaxing, Zhejiang Province, China, indicated the population development pattern there was a typical temperate type with low immigration and high growth rate. Population dynamics was affected by temperature, variety and natural control agents, as well as immigration. Forecasting process was described and prediction could be improved by using multi-regression models incorporating immigration size, percentage f area grown resistant varieties and temperature in mid-September. An ecological approach for improvement of BPH management was proposed, because frequent outbreak in temperate regions was mainly resulted from high growth rate there and inappreciative chemical control might cause resurgence.