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Comparison of prediction methods for Nonlinear Time series data with Intervention1)
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  • Comparison of prediction methods for Nonlinear Time series data with Intervention1)
저자명
Lee. Sung-Duck,Kim. Ju-Sung
간행물명
한국데이터정보과학회지
권/호정보
2003년|14권 2호|pp.265-274 (10 pages)
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한국데이터정보과학회
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이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
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기타언어초록

Time series data are influenced by the external events such as holiday, strike, oil shock, and political change, so the external events cause a sudden change to the time series data. We regard the observation as outlier that occurred as a result of external events. In general, it is called intervention if we know the period and the reason of external events, and it makes an analyst difficult to establish a time series model. Therefore, it is important that we analyze the styles and effects of intervention. In this paper, we considered the linear time series model with invention and compared with nonlinear time series models such as ARCH, GARCH model and also we compared with the combination prediction method that Tong(1990) introduced. In the practical case study, we compared prediction power with RMSE among linear, nonlinear time series model with intervention and combination prediction method.