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Further Advances in Forecasting Day-Ahead Electricity Prices Using Time Series Models
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  • Further Advances in Forecasting Day-Ahead Electricity Prices Using Time Series Models
  • Further Advances in Forecasting Day-Ahead Electricity Prices Using Time Series Models
저자명
Guirguis. Hany S.,Felder. Frank A.
간행물명
KIEE international transactions on power engineering
권/호정보
2004년|3호|pp.159-166 (8 pages)
발행정보
대한전기학회
파일정보
정기간행물|ENG|
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기타
이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
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기타언어초록

Forecasting prices in electricity markets is critical for consumers and producers in planning their operations and managing their price risk. We utilize the generalized autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic (GARCH) method to forecast the electricity prices in two regions of New York: New York City and Central New York State. We contrast the one-day forecasts of the GARCH against techniques such as dynamic regression, transfer function models, and exponential smoothing. We also examine the effect on our forecasting of omitting some of the extreme values in the electricity prices. We show that accounting for the extreme values and the heteroskedactic variance in the electricity price time-series can significantly improve the accuracy of the forecasting. Additionally, we document the higher volatility in New York City electricity prices. Differences in volatility between regions are important in the pricing of electricity options and for analyzing market performance.