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UNCERTAINTY AND SENSITIVITY STUDIES WITH THE PROBABILISTIC ACCIDENT CONSEQUENCE ASSESSMENT CODE OSCAAR
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  • UNCERTAINTY AND SENSITIVITY STUDIES WITH THE PROBABILISTIC ACCIDENT CONSEQUENCE ASSESSMENT CODE OSCAAR
  • UNCERTAINTY AND SENSITIVITY STUDIES WITH THE PROBABILISTIC ACCIDENT CONSEQUENCE ASSESSMENT CODE OSCAAR
저자명
HOMMA. TOSHIMITSU,TOMITA. KENICHI,HATO. SHINJI
간행물명
Nuclear engineering and technology : an international journal of the Korean Nuclear Society
권/호정보
2005년|37권 3호|pp.245-258 (14 pages)
발행정보
한국원자력학회
파일정보
정기간행물|ENG|
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기타
이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
서지반출

기타언어초록

This paper addresses two types of uncertainty: stochastic uncertainty and subjective uncertainty in probabilistic accident consequence assessments. The off-site consequence assessment code OSCAAR has been applied to uncertainty and sensitivity analyses on the individual risks of early fatality and latent cancer fatality in the population outside the plant boundary due to a severe accident. A new stratified meteorological sampling scheme was successfully implemented into the trajectory model for atmospheric dispersion and the statistical variability of the probability distributions of the consequence was examined. A total of 65 uncertain input parameters was considered and 128 runs of OSCAAR with 144 meteorological sequences were performed in the parameter uncertainty analysis. The study provided the range of uncertainty for the expected values of individual risks of early and latent cancer fatality close to the site. In the sensitivity analyses, the correlation/regression measures were useful for identifying those input parameters whose uncertainty makes an important contribution to the overall uncertainty for the consequence. This could provide valuable insights into areas for further research aiming at reducing the uncertainties.