- 몬테카를로 모사에 의한 용접 계면에서의 크리프 균열성장 파손 확률 평가
- ㆍ 저자명
- 이진상,윤기봉,Lee. Jin-Sang,Yoon. Kee-Bong
- ㆍ 간행물명
- 大韓溶接學會誌
- ㆍ 권/호정보
- 2005년|23권 6호|pp.61-66 (6 pages)
- ㆍ 발행정보
- 대한용접접합학회
- ㆍ 파일정보
- 정기간행물| PDF텍스트
- ㆍ 주제분야
- 기타
A probabilistic approach for evaluating failure risk is suggested in this paper. Probabilistic fracture analyses were performed for a pressurized pipe of a Cr-Mo steel reflecting variation of material properties at high temperature. A crack was assumed to be located along the weld fusion line. Probability density functions of major variables were determined by statistical analyses of material creep and creep crack growth data measured by the previous experimental studies by authors. Distributions of these variables were implemented in Monte Carlo simulation of this study. As a fracture parameter for characterizing growth of a fusion line crack between two materials with different creep properties, $C_t$ normalized with $C^*$ was employed. And the elapsed time was also normalized with tT, Resultingly, failure probability as a function of operating time was evaluated fur various cases. Conventional deterministic life assessment result was turned out to be conservative compared with that of probabilistic result. Sensitivity analysis for each input variable was conducted to understand the most influencing variable to the analysis results. Internal pressure, creep crack growth coefficient and creep coefficient were more sensitive to failure probability than other variables.