- 변수변환을 통한 포항지역 미세먼지의 통계적 예보모형에 관한 연구
- ㆍ 저자명
- 이영섭,김현구,박종석,김희경,Lee. Yung-Seop,Kim. Hyun-Goo,Park. Jong-Seok,Kim. Hee-Kyung
- ㆍ 간행물명
- 한국대기환경학회지
- ㆍ 권/호정보
- 2006년|22권 5호|pp.614-626 (13 pages)
- ㆍ 발행정보
- 한국대기환경학회
- ㆍ 파일정보
- 정기간행물| PDF텍스트
- ㆍ 주제분야
- 기타
Using the data of three environmental monitoring sites in Pohang area(KME112, KME113, and KME114), statistical forecasting models of the daily maximum and mean values of PM10 have been developed. Since the distributions of the daily maximum and mean PM10 values are skewed, which are similar to the Weibull distribution, these values were log-transformed to increase prediction accuracy by approximating the normal distribution. Three statistical forecasting models, which are regression, neural networks(NN) and support vector regression(SVR), were built using the log-transformed response variables, i.e., log(max(PM10)) or log(mean (PM10)). Also, the forecasting models were validated by the measure of RMSE, CORR, and IOA for the model comparison and accuracy. The improvement rate of IOA before and after the log-transformation in the daily maximum PM10 prediction was 12.7% for the regression and 22.5% for NN. In particular, 42.7% was improved for SVR method. In the case of the daily mean PM10 prediction, IOA value was improved by 5.1% for regression, 6.5% for NN, and 6.3% for SVR method. As a conclusion, SVR method was found to be performed better than the other methods in the point of the model accuracy and fitness views.