In this study, effects of forming angle and friction coefficient on a initiation of the Mannesmann hole defect were analyzed by using a response surface method. The maximum effective plastic strain at center point of specimen is utilized for the prediction of the starting point of crack occurrence, which is suggested by the comparison of integrals of four different ductile fracture models between the histories of the effective plastic strain at center point. It was revealed that the principal stress at the center is the dominant element to the increase of the effective plastic strain. It was also verified by the simulation results from the comparison of experiment and simulation. It is provided that the forming angle of 25 degrees and the spreading angle of 1 degree can be a proper design condition without an occurrence of internal hole defect and an excessive slip.