- 중회귀 모형을 이용한 울산지역 오존 포텐셜 모형의 설계 및 평가
- ㆍ 저자명
- 김유근,이소영,임윤규,송상근,Kim. Yoo-Keun,Lee. So-Young,Lim. Yun-Kyu,Song. Sang-Keun
- ㆍ 간행물명
- 한국대기환경학회지
- ㆍ 권/호정보
- 2007년|23권 1호|pp.14-28 (15 pages)
- ㆍ 발행정보
- 한국대기환경학회
- ㆍ 파일정보
- 정기간행물| PDF텍스트
- ㆍ 주제분야
- 기타
This study presented the selection of ozone ($O_3$) potential factors and designed and assessed its potential prediction model using multiple-linear regression equations in Ulsan area during the springtime from April to June, $2000{sim}2004$. $O_3$ potential factors were selected by analyzing the relationship between meterological parameters and surface $O_3$ concentrations. In addition, cluster analysis (e.g., average linkage and K-means clustering techniques) was performed to identify three major synoptic patterns (e.g., $P1{sim}P3$) for an $O_3$ potential prediction model. P1 is characterized by a presence of a low-pressure system over northeastern Korea, the Ulsan was influenced by the northwesterly synoptic flow leading to a retarded sea breeze development. P2 is characterized by a weakening high-pressure system over Korea, and P3 is clearly associated with a migratory anticyclone. The stepwise linear regression was performed to develop models for prediction of the highest 1-h $O_3$ occurring in the Ulsan. The results of the models were rather satisfactory, and the high $O_3$ simulation accuracy for $P1{sim}P3$ synoptic patterns was found to be 79, 85, and 95%, respectively ($2000{sim}2004$). The $O_3$ potential prediction model for $P1{sim}P3$ using the predicted meteorological data in 2005 showed good high $O_3$ prediction performance with 78, 75, and 70%, respectively. Therefore the regression models can be a useful tool for forecasting of local $O_3$ concentration.