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저자명
김유근,이소영,임윤규,송상근,Kim. Yoo-Keun,Lee. So-Young,Lim. Yun-Kyu,Song. Sang-Keun
간행물명
한국대기환경학회지
권/호정보
2007년|23권 1호|pp.14-28 (15 pages)
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한국대기환경학회
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이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
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기타언어초록

This study presented the selection of ozone ($O_3$) potential factors and designed and assessed its potential prediction model using multiple-linear regression equations in Ulsan area during the springtime from April to June, $2000{sim}2004$. $O_3$ potential factors were selected by analyzing the relationship between meterological parameters and surface $O_3$ concentrations. In addition, cluster analysis (e.g., average linkage and K-means clustering techniques) was performed to identify three major synoptic patterns (e.g., $P1{sim}P3$) for an $O_3$ potential prediction model. P1 is characterized by a presence of a low-pressure system over northeastern Korea, the Ulsan was influenced by the northwesterly synoptic flow leading to a retarded sea breeze development. P2 is characterized by a weakening high-pressure system over Korea, and P3 is clearly associated with a migratory anticyclone. The stepwise linear regression was performed to develop models for prediction of the highest 1-h $O_3$ occurring in the Ulsan. The results of the models were rather satisfactory, and the high $O_3$ simulation accuracy for $P1{sim}P3$ synoptic patterns was found to be 79, 85, and 95%, respectively ($2000{sim}2004$). The $O_3$ potential prediction model for $P1{sim}P3$ using the predicted meteorological data in 2005 showed good high $O_3$ prediction performance with 78, 75, and 70%, respectively. Therefore the regression models can be a useful tool for forecasting of local $O_3$ concentration.