In this paper, the methodology to predict the number of deaths and possible fire propagation scenarios will be described in case of fire on a train in a tunnel. We use a probabilistic analysis method for the evaluation of possibility for each scenario and the deaths tolls are calculated with the help of the passenger evacuation simulation program. The resulting safety of passengers is displayed on a F/N graph, which could be used in part as a guideline to predict the safety level of the tunnel in fire.