- 결점나무 분석에서 불확실성 중요도 측도의 평가
- ㆍ 저자명
- 조재균,정석찬,Cho. Jae-Gyeun,Jeong. Seok-Chan
- ㆍ 간행물명
- 정보시스템연구
- ㆍ 권/호정보
- 2008년|17권 3호|pp.25-37 (13 pages)
- ㆍ 발행정보
- 한국정보시스템학회
- ㆍ 파일정보
- 정기간행물| PDF텍스트
- ㆍ 주제분야
- 기타
In a fault tree analysis, an uncertainty importance measure is often used to assess how much uncertainty of the top event probability (Q) is attributable to the uncertainty of a basic event probability ($q_i$), and thus, to identify those basic events whose uncertainties need to be reduced to effectively reduce the uncertainty of Q. For evaluating the measures suggested by many authors which assess a percentage change in the variance V of Q with respect to unit percentage change in the variance $v_i$ of $q_i$, V and ${partial}V/{partial}v_i$ need to be estimated analytically or by Monte Carlo simulation. However, it is very complicated to analytically compute V and ${partial}V/{partial}v_i$ for large-sized fault trees, and difficult to estimate them in a robust manner by Monte Carlo simulation. In this paper, we propose a method for evaluating the measure using discretization technique and Monte Carlo simulation. The proposed method provides a stable uncertainty importance of each basic event.