- 베이지안 방법을 이용한 우리나라 강수특성(1954-2007)의 변화시점 및 변화유형 분석
- ㆍ 저자명
- 김찬수,서명석,Kim. Chansoo,Suh. Myoung-Seok
- ㆍ 간행물명
- 대기
- ㆍ 권/호정보
- 2009년|19권 2호|pp.199-211 (13 pages)
- ㆍ 발행정보
- 한국기상학회
- ㆍ 파일정보
- 정기간행물| PDF텍스트
- ㆍ 주제분야
- 기타
In this paper, we examine the multiple change-point and change pattern in the 54 years (1954-2007) time series of the annual and the heavy precipitation characteristics (amount, days and intensity) averaged over South Korea. A Bayesian approach is used for detecting of mean and/or variance changes in a sequence of independent univariate normal observations. Using non-informative priors for the parameters, the Bayesian model selection is performed by the posterior probability through the intrinsic Bayes factor of Berger and Pericchi (1996). To investigate the significance of the changes in the precipitation characteristics between before and after the change-point, the posterior probability and 90% highest posterior density credible intervals are examined. The results showed that no significant changes have occurred in the annual precipitation characteristics (amount, days and intensity) and the heavy precipitation intensity. On the other hand, a statistically significant single change has occurred around 1996 or 1997 in the heavy precipitation days and amount. The heavy precipitation amount and days have increased after the change-point but no changes in the variances.