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신제품 및 서비스에 있어 이분조각 Bass모형에 의한 확산 패턴 분석
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  • 신제품 및 서비스에 있어 이분조각 Bass모형에 의한 확산 패턴 분석
저자명
홍석기,홍정식,Hong. Seok-Kee,Hong. Jung-Sik
간행물명
산업공학
권/호정보
2010년|23권 4호|pp.337-348 (12 pages)
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대한산업공학회
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이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
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기타언어초록

The Bass model is the most widely used model in research of new product diffusion because it presents a nice explanation on the diffusion process of new products. However, it has a limitation that its performance of fitness is lower as the available data become less and also, the diffusion curve is bell-shape and so, it can not represent the various diffusion patterns. Recently, a two-pieces Bass model is developed and applied to analyze diffusion of 10 products. The results are encouraging in terms of fitness. However, diffusion pattern is not dealt with in the paper. In this paper, analysis of diffusion pattern is in depth addressed in two-pieces Bass model. It is shown that the diffusion curves are divided into 3 types with respect to the peak adoption rate and each type is divided into 2 types further. Takeoff time of a diffusion process is analyzed by using the inflection point and regime-change time where it represents the point that imitation and innovation parameters change. Empirical studies for 68 products(28 domestic products and 40 USA products) are performed to analyze the diffusion pattern. Findings are that diffusion patterns of all products except 1 USA product show type I and regime-change time becomes shorter as the introduction time of the product is later in domestic products and regime-change time can be regarded as a takeoff time in 47% of total 68 products.