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서지반출
운수창고 및 통신업에서의 재해율 예측과 무재해시간 추정에 관한 연구
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  • 운수창고 및 통신업에서의 재해율 예측과 무재해시간 추정에 관한 연구
저자명
강영식,김태구,Kang. Young-Sig,Kim. Tae-Gu
간행물명
한국안전학회지
권/호정보
2010년|25권 6호|pp.47-52 (6 pages)
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한국안전학회
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정기간행물|
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이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
서지반출

기타언어초록

Many industrial accidents have occurred over the years in the manufacturing and construction industries in Korea. However, as the service industry has increased continuously, the share of the accident rate in the service industry was 39.07% in 2009, while the manufacturing industry share was 33.73%. The service industry share overtook the manufacturing industry share for the first time. Therefore, this research considers prevention of industrial accidents in the service industry as well as manufacturing and construction industries. This paper describes a procedure and a method to estimate efficient accident rate forecasting and estimated zero accident time in the service industry in order to prevent industrial accidents in the transportation, storage, and telecommunication divisions. This paper proposes a model using an analytical function for the sake of very efficient accident rate forecasting. Accordingly, this paper has develops a program for accident rate forecasting, zero accident time estimating, and calculation of achievement probability through MFC (Microsoft Foundation Class) software Visual Studio 2008 in the transportation, storage, and telecommunication divisions. In results of this paper, ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrating Moving Average) is regarded as a very efficient forecasting model for the transportation, storage, and telecommunication division. In testing this model, value minimizing the Sum of Square Errors (SSE) was calculated as 0.2532. Finally the results of this paper are sure to help establish easy accident rate forecasting and strategy or method of zero accident time in the service industry for prevention of industrial accidents.