- 기상청 MOS 예측값 적용을 통한 풍력 발전량 예측 타당성 연구
- ㆍ 저자명
- 김경보,박윤호,박정근,고경남,허종철,Kim. Kyoung-Bo,Park. Yun-Ho,Park. Jeong-Keun,Ko. Kyung-Nam,Huh. Jong-Chul
- ㆍ 간행물명
- 한국태양에너지학회 논문집
- ㆍ 권/호정보
- 2010년|30권 2호|pp.46-53 (8 pages)
- ㆍ 발행정보
- 한국태양에너지학회
- ㆍ 파일정보
- 정기간행물| PDF텍스트
- ㆍ 주제분야
- 기타
In this paper the feasibility of wind power forecasting from MOS(Model Output Statistics) was evaluated at Gosan area in Jeju during February to Octoberin 2008. The observed wind data from wind turbine was compared with 24 hours and 48 hours forecasting wind data from MOS predicting. Coefficient of determination of measured wind speed from wind turbine and 24 hours forecasting from MOS was around 0.53 and 48 hours was around 0.30. These determination factors were increased to 0.65 from 0.53 and 0.35 from 0.30, respectively, when it comes to the prevailing wind direction($300^{circ}sim60^{circ}$). Wind power forecasting ratio in 24 hours of MOS showed a value of 0.81 within 70% confidence interval and it also showed 0.65 in 80% confidence interval. It is suggested that the additional study of weather conditions be carried out when large error happened in MOS forecasting.