The potential energy surface (PES) for the loss of HCN from the pyrimidine molecular ion has been explored using quantum chemical calculations. Possible reaction pathways to form five $C_3H_3N^{+{ullet}}$ isomers have been obtained with Gaussian 4 model calculations. The rate constant for the HCN loss and the product branching ratio have been calculated using the Rice-Ramsperger-Kassel-Marcus theory on the basis of the obtained PES. The resultant rate constant agrees with the previous experimental result. By a kinetic analysis, it is proposed that the formation of $CH=CHC{equiv}NH^{+{ullet}}$ is favored near the dissociation threshold, while the formation of $CH=CHN{equiv}CH^{+{ullet}}$ is favored at high energies.