기관회원 [로그인]
소속기관에서 받은 아이디, 비밀번호를 입력해 주세요.
개인회원 [로그인]

비회원 구매시 입력하신 핸드폰번호를 입력해 주세요.
본인 인증 후 구매내역을 확인하실 수 있습니다.

회원가입
서지반출
Near-real time Kp forecasting methods based on neural network and support vector machine
[STEP1]서지반출 형식 선택
파일형식
@
서지도구
SNS
기타
[STEP2]서지반출 정보 선택
  • 제목
  • URL
돌아가기
확인
취소
  • Near-real time Kp forecasting methods based on neural network and support vector machine
  • Near-real time Kp forecasting methods based on neural network and support vector machine
저자명
지은영,문용재,박종엽,이동훈,Ji. Eun-Young,Moon. Yong-Jae,Park. Jongyeob,Lee. Dong-Hun
간행물명
천문학회보
권/호정보
2012년|37권 2호|pp.123-123 (1 pages)
발행정보
한국천문학회
파일정보
정기간행물|ENG|
PDF텍스트
주제분야
기타
이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
서지반출

기타언어초록

We have compared near-real time Kp forecast models based on neural network (NN) and support vector machine (SVM) algorithms. We consider four models as follows: (1) a NN model using ACE solar wind data; (2) a SVM model using ACE solar wind data; (3) a NN model using ACE solar wind data and preliminary kp values from US ground-based magnetometers; (4) a SVM model using the same input data as model 3. For the comparison of these models, we estimate correlation coefficients and RMS errors between the observed Kp and the predicted Kp. As a result, we found that the model 3 is better than the other models. The values of correlation coefficients and RMS error of the model 3 are 0.93 and 0.48, respectively. For the forecast evaluation of models for geomagnetic storms ($Kp{geq}6$), we present contingency tables and estimate statistical parameters such as probability of detection yes (PODy), false alarm ratio (FAR), bias, and critical success index (CSI). From a comparison of these statistical parameters, we found that the SVM models (model 2 and model 4) are better than the NN models (model 1 and model 3). The values of PODy and CSI of the model 4 are the highest among these models (PODy: 0.57 and CSI: 0.48). From these results, we suggest that the NN models are better than the SVM models for predicting Kp and the SVM models are better than the NN models for forecasting geomagnetic storms.