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서지반출
APPLICATION OF SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINE TO THE PREDICTION OF GEO-EFFECTIVE HALO CMES
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  • APPLICATION OF SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINE TO THE PREDICTION OF GEO-EFFECTIVE HALO CMES
  • APPLICATION OF SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINE TO THE PREDICTION OF GEO-EFFECTIVE HALO CMES
저자명
Choi. Seong-Hwan,Moon. Yong-Jae,Vien. Ngo Anh,Park. Young-Deuk
간행물명
Journal of the Korean astronomical society
권/호정보
2012년|45권 2호|pp.31-38 (8 pages)
발행정보
한국천문학회
파일정보
정기간행물|ENG|
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기타
이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
서지반출

기타언어초록

In this study we apply Support Vector Machine (SVM) to the prediction of geo-effective halo coronal mass ejections (CMEs). The SVM, which is one of machine learning algorithms, is used for the purpose of classification and regression analysis. We use halo and partial halo CMEs from January 1996 to April 2010 in the SOHO/LASCO CME Catalog for training and prediction. And we also use their associated X-ray flare classes to identify front-side halo CMEs (stronger than B1 class), and the Dst index to determine geo-effective halo CMEs (stronger than -50 nT). The combinations of the speed and the angular width of CMEs, and their associated X-ray classes are used for input features of the SVM. We make an attempt to find the best model by using cross-validation which is processed by changing kernel functions of the SVM and their parameters. As a result we obtain statistical parameters for the best model by using the speed of CME and its associated X-ray flare class as input features of the SVM: Accuracy=0.66, PODy=0.76, PODn=0.49, FAR=0.72, Bias=1.06, CSI=0.59, TSS=0.25. The performance of the statistical parameters by applying the SVM is much better than those from the simple classifications based on constant classifiers.