- 미래 도시성장 시나리오에 따른 수도권 기후변화 예측 변동성 분석
- ㆍ 저자명
- 김현수,정주희,김유근,Kim. Hyun-Su,Jeong. Ju-Hee,Kim. Yoo-Keun
- ㆍ 간행물명
- 한국대기환경학회지
- ㆍ 권/호정보
- 2012년|28권 3호|pp.261-272 (12 pages)
- ㆍ 발행정보
- 한국대기환경학회
- ㆍ 파일정보
- 정기간행물| PDF텍스트
- ㆍ 주제분야
- 기타
In this study, climate variability was predicted by the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model under two different scenarios (current trends scenario; SC1 and managed scenario; SC2) for future urban growth over the Seoul metropolitan area (SMA). We used the urban growth model, SLEUTH (Slope, Land-use, Excluded, Urban, Transportation, Hill-Shade) to predict the future urban growth in SMA. As a result, the difference of urban ratio between two scenarios was the maximum up to 2.2% during 50 years (2000~2050). Also, the results of SLEUTH like this were adjusted in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to analysis the difference of the future climate for the future urbanization effect. By scenarios of urban growth, we knew that the significant differences of surface temperature with a maximum of about 4 K and PBL height with a maximum of about 200 m appeared locally in newly urbanized area. However, wind speeds are not sensitive for the future urban growth in SMA. These results show that we need to consider the future land-use changes or future urban extension in the study for the prediction of future climate changes.