- Stationary Bootstrap Prediction Intervals for GARCH(p,q)
- ㆍ 저자명
- Hwang. Eunju,Shin. Dong Wan
- ㆍ 간행물명
- Communications for statistical applications and methods
- ㆍ 권/호정보
- 2013년|20권 1호|pp.41-52 (12 pages)
- ㆍ 발행정보
- 한국통계학회
- ㆍ 파일정보
- 정기간행물| PDF텍스트
- ㆍ 주제분야
- 기타
The stationary bootstrap of Politis and Romano (1994) is adopted to develop prediction intervals of returns and volatilities in a generalized autoregressive heteroskedastic (GARCH)(p, q) model. The stationary bootstrap method is applied to generate bootstrap observations of squared returns and residuals, through an ARMA representation of the GARCH model. The stationary bootstrap estimators of unknown parameters are defined and used to calculate the stationary bootstrap samples of volatilities. Estimates of future values of returns and volatilities in the GARCH process and the bootstrap prediction intervals are constructed based on the stationary bootstrap; in addition, asymptotic validities are also shown.