To study the quality changes of blunt-snout bream (Megalobrama amblycephala) stored at chilled temperature ($0-9^{circ}C$), a global stability index (GSI) method was developed. Sensory score, total aerobic counts (TAC), total volatile basic nitrogen (TVB-N), and K value (as a percentage of the ratio between HxR (hypoxanthine riboside)+Hx (hypoxanthine) to the total ATP (adenosine triphosphate) and its degradation products) were determined to form a GSI value, and a predictive model of GSI was established by combining zero order kinetics with the Arrhenius equation. The results showed that the goodness of fit remained a high level ($R^2$ >0.97), the activation energy ($E_A$) and the corresponding pre-exponential factor ($k_0$) were 83.49 kJ/mol and $4.78{ imes}10^{14}$ respectively. Relative errors between experimental GSI values and predicted GSI values were all within ${pm}15%$ before the $15^{th}$ day. Therefore, the model could effectively predict the quality deterioration of blunt-snout bream during chilled storage.