- 도시가스 일일수요의 단기예측
- ㆍ 저자명
- 박진수,김윤배,정철우,Park. Jinsoo,Kim. Yun Bae,Jung. Chul Woo
- ㆍ 간행물명
- 대한산업공학회지
- ㆍ 권/호정보
- 2013년|39권 4호|pp.247-252 (6 pages)
- ㆍ 발행정보
- 대한산업공학회
- ㆍ 파일정보
- 정기간행물| PDF텍스트
- ㆍ 주제분야
- 기타
Korea gas corporation (KOGAS) is responsible for the whole sale of natural gas in the domestic market. It is important to forecast the daily demand of city gas for supply and demand control, and delivery management. Since there is the autoregressive characteristic in the daily gas demand, we introduce a modified autoregressive model as the first step. The daily gas demand also has a close connection with the outdoor temperature. Accordingly, our second proposed model is a temperature-based model. Those two models, however, do not meet the requirement for forecasting performances. To produce acceptable forecasting performances, we develop a weighted average model which compounds the autoregressive model and the temperature model. To examine our proposed methods, the forecasting results are provided. We confirm that our method can forecast the daily city gas demand accurately with reasonable performances.