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FORECAST OF SOLAR PROTON EVENTS WITH NOAA SCALES BASED ON SOLAR X-RAY FLARE DATA USING NEURAL NETWORK
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  • FORECAST OF SOLAR PROTON EVENTS WITH NOAA SCALES BASED ON SOLAR X-RAY FLARE DATA USING NEURAL NETWORK
  • FORECAST OF SOLAR PROTON EVENTS WITH NOAA SCALES BASED ON SOLAR X-RAY FLARE DATA USING NEURAL NETWORK
저자명
Jeong. Eui-Jun,Lee. Jin-Yi,Moon. Yong-Jae,Park. Jongyeop
간행물명
Journal of the Korean astronomical society
권/호정보
2014년|47권 6호|pp.209-214 (6 pages)
발행정보
한국천문학회
파일정보
정기간행물|ENG|
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기타
이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
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기타언어초록

In this study we develop a set of solar proton event (SPE) forecast models with NOAA scales by Multi Layer Perceptron (MLP), one of neural network methods, using GOES solar X-ray flare data from 1976 to 2011. Our MLP models are the first attempt to forecast the SPE scales by the neural network method. The combinations of X-ray flare class, impulsive time, and location are used for input data. For this study we make a number of trials by changing the number of layers and nodes as well as combinations of the input data. To find the best model, we use the summation of F-scores weighted by SPE scales, where F-score is the harmonic mean of PODy (recall) and precision (positive predictive value), in order to minimize both misses and false alarms. We find that the MLP models are much better than the multiple linear regression model and one layer MLP model gives the best result.