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Seismicity and seismic hazard assessment for greater Tehran region using Gumbel first asymptotic distribution
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  • Seismicity and seismic hazard assessment for greater Tehran region using Gumbel first asymptotic distribution
  • Seismicity and seismic hazard assessment for greater Tehran region using Gumbel first asymptotic distribution
저자명
Bastami. Morteza,Kowsari. Milad
간행물명
Structural engineering and mechanics : An international journal
권/호정보
2014년|49권 3호|pp.355-372 (18 pages)
발행정보
테크노프레스
파일정보
정기간행물|ENG|
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이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
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기타언어초록

Considering the history of severe earthquakes and the presence of active faults in the greater Tehran region, the possibility of a destructive earthquake occurring is high and seismic hazard analysis is crucial. Gumbel distributions are commonly-used statistical distributions in earthquake engineering and seismology. Their main advantage is their basis on the largest earthquake magnitudes selected from an equal-time predefined set. In this study, the first asymptotic distribution of extremes is used to estimate seismicity parameters and peak ground acceleration (PGA). By assuming a Poisson distribution for the earthquakes, after estimation of seismicity parameters, the mean return period and the probable maximum magnitude within a given time interval are obtained. A maximum probable magnitude of 7.0 has a mean return period of 100 years in this region. For a return period of 475 years, the PGA in the greater Tehran region is estimated to be 0.39g to 0.42g, depending on local site conditions. This value is greater than that of the Iranian Code for Seismic Design of Buildings, indicating that a revision of the code is necessary.