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TIGGE 자료를 이용한 2012년 12월 28일 한반도 강설사례 예측성 연구
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  • TIGGE 자료를 이용한 2012년 12월 28일 한반도 강설사례 예측성 연구
저자명
이상민,한상은,원혜영,하종철,이정순,심재관,이용희,Lee. Sang-Min,Han. Sang-Un,Won. Hye Young,Ha. Jong-Chul,Lee. Jeong-Soon,Sim. Jae-Kwan,Lee. Yong Hee
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권/호정보
2014년|24권 1호|pp.1-15 (15 pages)
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한국기상학회
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기타
이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
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기타언어초록

This study compared ensemble mean and probability forecasts of snow depth amount associated with winter storm over South Korea on 28 December 2012 at five operational forecast centers (CMA, ECMWF, NCEP, KMA, and UMKO). And cause of difference in predicted snow depth at each Ensemble Prediction System (EPS) was investigated by using THe Observing system Research and Predictability EXperiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) data. This snowfall event occurred due to low pressure passing through South Sea of Korea. Amount of 6 hr accumulated snow depth was more than 10 cm over southern region of South Korea In this case study, ECMWF showed best prediction skill for the spatio-temporal distribution of snow depth. At first, ECMWF EPS has been consistently enhancing the indications present in ensemble mean snow depth forecasts from 7-day lead time. Secondly, its ensemble probabilities in excess of 2~5 cm/6 hour have been coincided with observation frequencies. And this snowfall case could be predicted from 5-day lead time by using 10-day lag ensemble mean 6 hr accumulated snow depth distribution. In addition, the cause of good performances at ECMWF EPS in predicted snow depth amounts was due to outstanding prediction ability of forming inversion layer with below $0^{circ}C$ temperature in low level (below 850 hPa) according to $35^{circ}N$ at 1-day lead time.