The application of friction stir welding (FSW) technology has been extended to all industries, including shipbuilding. A heat transfer analysis evaluates the weldability of a welded work piece, and elasto-plastic analysis predicts the residual stress and deformation after welding. A thermal elasto-plastic analysis based on the heat transfer analysis results is most frequently used today. However, its application to large objects such as offshore structures and hulls is impractical owing to its long computational time. This paper proposes a new method, namely an equivalent strain method using the inherent strain, to overcome the disadvantages of the extended analysis time. In the present study, a residual stress analysis of FSW was performed using this equivalent strain method. Additionally, in order to reflect the external constraints in FSW, the reaction force was predicted using a neural network, Finally, the approach was verified by comparing the experimental results and thermal elasto-plastic analysis results for the calculated residual stress distribution.