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중국의 일대일로 전략 평가와한국의 대응방안
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  • 중국의 일대일로 전략 평가와한국의 대응방안
저자명
이승신,이현태,현상백,나수엽,김영선,조고운,오윤미
간행물명
KIEP 연구보고서
권/호정보
2017년|pp.1-342 (342 pages)
발행정보
대외경제정책연구원|한국
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기타|KOR|
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국문초록

중국의 신(新)실크로드 구상인 일대일로(一帶一路) 전략은 중국 내륙지역을 중심으로 한 육상 실크로드와 연해지역을 중심으로 한 해상 실크로드로 나뉜다. 육상 실크로드 해당 지역의 대부분은 기존 동부연해지역 위주의 대외개방정책에서 소외되었던 중국 중서부 및 동북부 등 내륙지역으로, 향후 대외교류 확대를 위해 주변 인접국가와의 인프라 연결 및 무역원활화 추진에 더욱 역점을 두고 있다. 해상 실크로드 선상의 주요 지방정부는 아시아ㆍ유럽ㆍ아프리카를 잇는 해상 인프라 구축과 해양 협력 강화를 일대일로 전략의 핵심으로 제시하고 있다. 따라서 주요 항구를 거점으로 한 인프라 연결을 중요시하는 각 지방정부들은 해당 지역의 지리적 이점을 활용한 항공, 항만, 도로 건설 등 종합 교통 네트워크 및 물류ㆍ통신ㆍ정보 네트워크의 구축 등, 이와 관련된 구체적 계획을 발표하였다. 한편 일대일로가 중국의 새로운 대외전략의 방향성을 제시하고 중앙부처별, 지방정부의 지역별 참여방안 마련을 통해 구체화 작업이 진행되었다는 성과에도 불구하고 앞으로 일대일로 추진에 있어 많은 과제에 직면해있다. 대외적으로 일대일로 연선국가는 대부분 개발도상국이나 빈곤국가들로 구성되어 있고 정치적ㆍ종교적으로도 불안정한 지역이 적지 않다. 또한 현 단계에서 주요 협력이 인프라 협력 위주로 추진되는 점은 중국정부의 재정부담으로 작용할 가능성이 크고, 구매력이 높지 않은 국가들과의 경제협력은 단기적으로 무역, 투자 확대효과가 크지 않을 가능성도 있다. 본 보고서에서는 일대일로의 오통 중에 경제협력과 가장 관련이 깊은 인프라, 자금, 무역 부문의 일대일로 진행상황에 대해 중국 연구의 총체적인 평가를 개괄하고, 세부 부문별로 중국과 연선국가 간의 일대일로 전략의 진행상황을 분석하였다.

영문초록

One Belt and One Road (B&R, 一带一路), China’s new Silk Road initiative, is largely divided into two parts: the Land Silk Road centered on China’s inland area and the Maritime Silk Road based in China’s coastal area. Most of the Land Silk Road area is located in the Midwest and the Northeast inland area of China, hitherto marginalized by the opening policy emphasizing the eastern coastal area. In order to expand future foreign exchanges, more emphasis has been placed on promoting infrastructure connection and trade facilitation. Local governments on the Maritime Silk Road are presenting the creation of maritime infrastructure connecting Asia-Europe-Africa and the strengthening of marine cooperation as the core of their B&R strategy. Therefore, each local government is emphasizing infrastructure connection centered on major ports and announcing concrete plans related to a comprehensive transportation network including aviation, harbor and road construction and logistics, communication, information networks making use of their geographical advantages. Meanwhile, despite the achievements made by the central and local governments through various regional participation plans, the B&R initiative is faced with several challenges ahead. Among B&R countries, there are many developing and poor countries that are unstable from a political and religious perspective. Also, the fact that major cooperation at the present stage is promoted mainly by infrastructure cooperation is likely to act as a financial burden to the Chinese government, and economic cooperation with countries where buying power is not high is not expected to be significant in the near term. This report scrutinized the Chinese researches assessing the progress of the B&R initiative, and analyzed the cooperation between China and the B&R countries in infrastructure, funding, and trade – issues which are closely related to the area of economic cooperation among the five areas (Wu Tong, 五通) specified within the B&R initiative. China has developed a framework connecting infrastructures with Central and Eastern Europe, CIS, Central Asia, South Asia and countries along the ASEAN-5 region joining the B&R initiative, and has promoted related cooperation projects. However, execution of such projects is still in the initial stage. This is because most infrastructure projects are long-term, large-scale projects. Therefore, it is difficult to make a concrete evaluation of infrastructure cooperation projects conducted in line with the B&R initiative at this stage. Until now, the infrastructure cooperation between Russia and Kazakhstan has been relatively active and there has been some progress in constructing the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. Many other B&R countries have low economic development levels and their infrastructure facilities are under-developed, which means demands for infrastructure development cooperation with China are large, but there are also many potential risk factors and problems to solve in the development process. In order to strengthen the connectivity of infrastructures among B&R countries, it will be necessary to coordinate among relevant parties, promote transparency, and take strict and careful consideration of the environmental issues related to developing infrastructure projects. Meanwhile, the level of B&R initiative funding is not high, and there is a large gap between regional and national levels, thus making further progress difficult. These difficulties are caused by the many challenges to be overcome in cash flow for the B&R initiative. First of all, B&R countries that are still developing will first have to undergo considerable levels of development in their trade and finance sectors. In particular, it will be necessary to improve deficient financial systems and expand access to financial markets for all economic entities. Second, a stable atmosphere in the political, diplomatic and military arenas should be created and risks in these regards should be reduced. Third, while regional economic development and income growth are taking place, bankable projects within the region must increase. The area still has a small population, low income, and few projects to ensure proper profits. Therefore, funds in China are likely to prefer Belt & Road businesses rather than the Private-Public Partnership projects strongly promoted by the Chinese government, while international funds are likely to opt for projects promoted by banks with higher credit ratings such as the ADB or WB. Fourth, the Chinese economy, which is leading the Belt & Road strategy, must maintain stable growth. We must keep the economic growth rate at an appropriate level even in the 'New Normal' era and be wary of sudden sharp declines in financial markets such as the foreign exchange, stocks and bond markets. Following this, the financing process will proceed with the following characteristics. First of all, the gap between inter-region, inter-country, and intergovernmental funding will increase further. In countries and regions which conduct active trade and financial exchanges with China, the cash flow will accelerate, whereas locations where this is not true will likely become alienated. In terms of items, it will mainly be cooperation in areas that do not mandate specific requirements and thus represent a lower burden of participation, such as participation in the AIIB, that is conducted, but such levels of cooperation as the establishment of a currency clearing bank are not expected to be achieved any time soon, as such measures would require a large amount of trade and investment in China, and a stable and advanced financial system. Second, financial cooperation in line with the Belt & Road initiative is centered on China's leading financial institutions, state-owned commercial banks, and international financial institutions, and private participation in the pursuit of short-term profits is expected to be complementary and progressive. Third, a priority will be placed on sectors of financial cooperation needed to proceed with exchanges between Belt & Road countries and China. In other words, it will be necessary to begin with cooperation in areas such as infrastructure construction, facilitation of trade facilitation, and activation of investment, if the overall level of cooperation for funding is expected to improve. It was found that the level of institutional connectivity is higher than infrastructure connection and cash flow. In terms of sector, investment cooperation was more active than trade exchanges, while overall trade volume declined as a result of the recent global economic downturn. The increase in investment cooperation is likely due to the significant increase in the amount of direct investment in the Belt & Road countries by China. The level of institutional connectivity can be understood by the three aspects of facilitation of trade, convenience of investment, and establishment of a cooperative economic cooperation zone. First of all, 64 Belt & Road countries are classified into the six large areas of Southeast Asia, West and North Africa, South Asia, Eastern Europe, Northeast Asia, Central Asia, and through the analysis of TSI (trade specialization index) absolute values, the level of trade optimization was evaluated. However, due to the implementation of B&R strategies, there were no zones where the trade levels had improved visibly. This indicates the limitations present in evaluating the trade activation effect at a point of time when only three years have elapsed since the strategy was raised on the B&R initiative, and for areas with differing degrees of economic development and industries. However, at the individual country level, it was found that the absolute TSI of Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia and Laos decreased and the trade imbalance improved. In these countries, China’s direct investment is relatively large. In other words, as Chinese companies expanded their local direct investment and exports increased for products manufactured in countries where production sites were relocated, it seems that they reached a balance in their trade with China. While such a phenomenon can be seen as a relocation of Chinese production networks, it can also be interpreted as a result of the implementation of B&R strategies that include relocation of B&R countries’ production facilities. Secondly, from the perspective of investment convenience, FDI increased 23.8 percent year-on-year to China in 2015, and the ODI also increased 18.2 percent year-on-year to countries along the line. This is a significant increase when considering the overall FDI in China increased by 6.4% over the same period while ODI increased by 14.7%. Also, as of December 2016, China has signed bilateral investment agreements with 104 countries, among which B&R countries accounted for 48 percent. Even in the case of the double taxation prevention agreement, China had signed such agreements with 102 countries by June 30, 2016, but 53 of these were B&R countries, similar to the bilateral investment agreement. By actively signing investment agreements and double taxation prevention agreements, it will become possible to construct a good investment environment by establishing a system to alleviate investment risks between the two countries, and to expect the benefits of investment convenience. Third, the joint economic cooperation zones, which are expected to serve as land and maritime hubs to facilitate trade among B&R countries, have been classified into border economic cooperation zones, cross-border economic cooperation zones, and overseas economic zones. China established a joint economic cooperation framework to strengthen bilateral trade and cooperation with B&R countries, and is looking forward to securing the overseas pivotal area for Chinese enterprises to advance, and reducing regional disparities in China by developing remote border areas. As the focus of China’s opening policy gradually moves from the Eastern coastal area to the West with the progress of the B&R initiative, the strategical status of zones surrounding China’s border has been elevated to the new pivotal area for opening policy. The Chinese government is planning to support joint economic cooperation zones in pivotal areas by rearranging their roles and functions, thus preventing reckless competition from breaking out among border areas and B&R countries. The joint economic cooperation zones are expected to serve as hubs for trade and investment expansion between China and B&R countries as the B&R initiative continues to progress. Based on the assessment of progress in China’s B&R initiative, this report presented several countermeasures for both companies and the government. At the corporate level, continuous monitoring of changes in B&R-related policies, utilization of changes in China’s production network and the effects of FTAs with B&R countries, participation in B&R financing projects by expanding participation in public-private MDB projects, and localization strategies for promoting a friendly image in B&R countries should be considered. Meanwhile, the government needs to support B&R finance cooperation initiatives at the government level by revitalizing the Korea-China Industrial Complex, taking preemptive measures toward the cross- border economic zone in the northern part of the Korean Peninsula, strengthening proactive and qualitative exchanges with China’s local governments, enhancing foreign infrastructure financing networks, and reorganizing foreign infrastructure investment organizations. Finally, as the conditions necessary to proceed with B&R-related projects, such as the economic development of B&R countries and countermeasures to geopolitical risks, are yet to be established, infrastructure construction, financing, trade and investment facilitation between China and B&R countries have been slow to develop. Therefore, at the current stage, it will be necessary to discover new business opportunities by monitoring changes in China with regard to the B&R initiative. According to B&R plans announced by local governments in China, they are pursuing economic development through cooperation in infrastructure construction, industrial development, and international economic cooperation, utilizing their own local characteristics. In conclusion, therefore, we need to create new cooperation opportunities by utilizing the B&R plans of each local government in China, make institutional efforts to vitalize bilateral mutual investment, and participate in the B&R initiative with a long-term vision.

목차

서언

국문요약

제1장 서론
1. 연구의 배경 및 목적
2. 선행연구 검토
3. 연구의 범위와 구성
    가. 연구의 범위
    나. 연구의 구성

제2장 일대일로 추진계획에 대한 평가
1. 중앙정부의 일대일로 추진계획
    가. 일대일로 개요
    나. 「13.5규획」 내 일대일로 추진계획
    다. 중앙정부 문건 발표 현황 및 특징
2. 중국 지역별 육상 실크로드 추진계획
    가. 육상 실크로드를 통한 내륙지역 대외개방 확대
    나. 중국 지역별 육상 실크로드 추진계획
3. 중국 지역별 해상 실크로드 추진계획
    가. 해상 실크로드 추진을 통한 신(新)해상 네트워크 구축
    나. 중국 지역별 해상 실크로드 추진계획
4. 소결

제3장 인프라 연결(设施聯通)에 대한 평가
1. 인프라 연결 수준 평가
2. 중국의 일대일로 경제외교 전개
3. 5대 권역별 협력 추진 점검
    가. 중ㆍ동구(Central and Eastern Europe)
    나. 중동
    다. CISㆍ중앙아시아
    라. 남아시아
    마. 아세안(ASEAN)
4. 소결

제4장 자금융통(资金融通)에 대한 평가
1. 자금융통 수준 평가
2. 국제금융협력
    가. 아시아인프라투자은행(AIIB)
    나. 브릭스 신개발은행(BRICS NDB)
    다. 실크로드 기금(Silk Road Fund, 丝路基金)
    라. 정책금융기관 및 상업은행
3. 금융감독협력
4. 위안화 국제화
5. 소결

제5장 무역창통(貿易暢通)에 대한 평가
1. 무역창통 수준 평가
2. 무역원활화 진행상황 분석
    가. 중국과 일대일로 연선국가 간 무역교류 현황
    나. 제도부문에서의 진행상황 점검
3. 투자편리화 진행상황 분석
    가. 중국과 일대일로 연선국가 간 투자협력 현황
    나. 투자편리화 제도부문에서의 진행상황 점검
4. 공동 경제협력구 건설 추진 현황
    가. 일대일로 전략하 ‘공동 경제협력구’ 건설 배경 및 의의
    나. 중국 변경지역 공동 경제협력구 추진 현황
    다. 일대일로하 해외 공동 경제협력구 현황
    라. 일대일로 추진하 대외협력 신모델 사례: 중국 둥싱ㆍ베트남 몽카이 초국경경제협력구
5. 소결

제6장 결론
1. 요약 및 평가
    가. 일대일로 계획의 추진상황
    나. 인프라 연결
    다. 자금융통
    라. 무역창통
    마. 연구의 한계 및 후속연구
2. 대응방안 및 시사점
    가. 기업 차원의 대응방안
    나. 정부 차원의 대응방안
    다. 정책적 시사점

참고문헌

부록

Executive Summary 
  
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