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북한의 무역과 산업정책의 연관성 분석
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  • 북한의 무역과 산업정책의 연관성 분석
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최장호,임수호,이석기,최유정,임소정
간행물명
KIEP 연구보고서
권/호정보
2017년|pp.1-210 (210 pages)
발행정보
대외경제정책연구원|한국
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기타|KOR|
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국문초록

2017년은 김정은이 집권한 지 5주년이 되는 해로 그동안 북한의 경제성과를 평가하는 것은 앞으로 북한경제의 변화방향을 가늠해볼 수 있다는 점에서 의의가 있다. 그러나 그간 북한경제를 조망하기 위한 많은 노력이 이루어졌음에도 경제규모와 산업정책, 산업별 현황 및 기업소, 공장 등에 대한 이해가 여전히 피상적인 수준에 머물러 있다. 본 연구는 북한경제를 평가하는 데 도움이 되는 새로운 형태의 자료를 제공하여 이에 대한 이해를 향상하고자 한다. 이를 위해 김일성과 김정일 정권에서 제시된 산업정책과 김정은 집권 이후 강조된 산업정책을 비교 정리하였고, 다음으로 북한의 수출입 통계를 산업별ㆍ기술수준별ㆍ사용목적별로 분석하여 북한경제 상황을 평가할 수 있는 근거로 삼았다. 마지막으로 북한의 산업정책과 수출입 통계의 변화를 종합적으로 고려하여 북한의 경제상황과 김정은 집권 이후 산업정책의 성과를 평가하였고, 또한 대북제재가 북한경제, 즉 수입에 미칠 수 있는 영향도 전망하였다. 구체적으로 제2장에서는 북한의 산업정책의 변천 과정과 김정은 집권 이후 강조된 산업정책을 분석하였다. 제1절에서는 북한의 대외관계 발전전략이 산업정책에서 갖는 함의를 분석하였다. 북한 산업정책의 핵심이 되는 3대 노선(자립적 민족경제 건설 노선과 경제ㆍ국방 병진 노선, 중공업 우선발전 및 농업ㆍ경공업 동시발전 노선)의 수립과 강조가 북한의 대외 여건 변화(한국전쟁 휴전과 중ㆍ소 분쟁, 남한과의 체제 경쟁, 사회주의 경제권의 붕괴 등)에 따라 어떻게 변해왔는지를 밝혔다. 제2절에서는 김정은 정권의 산업정책을 정리한 뒤, 이전의 김일성ㆍ김정일 정권의 산업정책과 어떤 공통점과 차이점을 가지고 있는지 규명하였다. 신년사와

영문초록

2017 marks the 5th year of Kim Jong Un’s reign, and evaluating the economic performance during this period is meaningful in that by doing so we can measure the future direction of the North Korean economy. However, despite the great efforts made to survey the North Korean economy, there is still only a superficial understanding regarding its economic size, industrial policies, industrial situation, and factories. The purpose of this study is to provide a new type of perspective through analyzing new kinds of data to help evaluate the North Korean economy. To this end, we provide a comparison between the industrial policies of the Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il regimes and the industrial policies emphasized since Kim Jong Un came to power. We then analyze the North Korean import and export data by industry, technology level, and utility purposes. Finally, this research considers the changes in North Korea’s industrial policy and import and export statistics to assess the economic situation of North Korea and the outcomes of its industrial policy after Kim Jong Un’s incumbency, and predicts the effect of sanctions on North Korea’s economy. Specifically, Chapter 2 provides an analysis of the transition process of North Korea’s industrial policies and those that have been emphasized after Kim Jong Un came into power. Section 1 analyzes the implications of North Korea’s foreign relations development strategy in light of its industrial policy. We show how the establishment and emphasis of the three major policy lines for North Korean industrial policies (i.e., the policy of autonomous national economic construction, the policy of parallel development of economy and nuclear weapons (byungjin policy), and the policy of prioritizing heavy industry development while simultaneously developing agricultural and light industries) evolved based on changes in its external circumstances (e.g., the inter-Korean armistice, Sino-Soviet dispute, competition with South Korea, collapse of the socialist economy). Section 2 summarizes the industrial policies of the Kim Jong Un regime, and then identifies the commonalities and differences vis–à–vis the previous Kim Il Sung and Kim Jong Il regimes. Based on a content analysis of the New Year’s address and Rodong Sinmun, North Korea’s state media, as well as interviews with North Korean defectors and people who have visited North Korea, we explain the pragmatic nature of emphasizing short-term achievements and avoiding large-scale heavy industries investment, focusing on the parallel pursuit of economic construction and nuclear armed forces construction, which are the characteristics of the Kim Jong Un regime. Chapter 3 jointly analyzes the changes in industrial policy and import composition. Section 1 summarizes the industrial policies proposed in Chapter 2 and summarizes the various issues and solutions that can be raised when linking each industrial policy with changes in import composition. In addition to industrial policies, we also considered the proliferation of the market and foreign currency usage in North Korea, economic growth and increase of income, preference for science and technology (resource consumption and production cost reduction), and inflation. In Section 2, we analyze the changes in import composition with three methodologies. First, we analyze the characteristics of the change in imports from before Kim Jong Un’s leadership to the early years of his leadership. There are three time points in this respect: 2005 (during Kim Jong-il’s rule), 2010 (end of the Kim Jong-il regime), and 2015 (the beginning of Kim Jong Un’s rule). Group 1 consists of items whose imports decreased in both 2010 and 2015, Group 2 consists of items whose imports increased in both 2010 and 2015, Group 3 consists of items that increased in 2010 but decreased in 2015, and Group 4 consists of items that decreased in 2010 but increased in 2015. Industrial categories (grouped in 2 digit HS code levels) consist of twelve types - agriculture, fisheries, chemicals, electronics, wood, machinery, minerals, plastics and rubber, metals, clothing, transport equipment and others. Second, North Korean imports are analyzed in terms of changes in the share of intermediate goods, capital goods, and consumer goods. Through this, we confirm whether North Korea has succeeded in implementing the policies of localization and normalization of industry, which it has emphasized. Third, we analyze the technology level of imported goods in North Korea. The level of technology was analyzed from the three aspects of “change of technology level by industry,” “change of technology level by purpose of use,” and “change of technology level by both industry and purpose.” In short, North Korea shows the characteristics of industrial and technological development at a level similar to South Korea in the 1970s and 1980s. Through analyzing the level of technology in North Korean import goods, we discover how North Korea is utilizing advanced overseas technology. Chapter 4 analyzes changes in the composition of exports. In addition, we summarize the changes in industrial and trade policies prompted by changes in external conditions of countries similar to those of North Korea. Based on the above discussion, we also show how sanctions against North Korea would impact its economy. Chapter 4 differs from Chapter 3 in that exports are affected by factors compared to imports. While imports are affected by changes in domestic industrial policies, socioeconomic economic activities and consumption trends, exports are mainly influenced by external factors such as strengthened international sanctions against North Korea and the slowing growth of the Chinese economy. Section 1 summarizes the industrial policies linked to exports. In Section 2, we analyze the changes in the composition of each group by industrial sector, the change of percentages by usage purpose, and the change of technology level among industries in accordance with the three methodologies of Section 2, Chapter 3. In Section 3, we select a transitional country with similar economic and industrial policies to North Korea, and then investigate the industrial policy that the state has pursued to respond to changes in its trade environment (reduction in economic income of major trading partners, economic crisis, etc.), after which we analyze the consequent ripple effect. Finally, Section 4 analyzes the effects of international sanctions on the North Korean economy. In Chapter 5, we analyze the linkages between foreign trade and industrial policies, and propose policies to normalize inter-Korean economic cooperation. Section 1 assesses and forecasts the present and future of the North Korean economy. At present, the North Korean economy seems to be gradually recovering from poverty and chronic economic downturn, albeit very slowly. As long as the strengthening of sanctions against North Korea continues, it is unlikely that its economy will continue on the path of normalization and improvement. Section 2 assesses the outcome of Kim Jong Un’s industrial policy. We find that the industrial policy newly emphasized by the Kim Jong Un regime is projected to some degree on the changes in import statistics. However, due to limitation of data, we could not clearly distinguish Kim Jong Un ’s byungjin policy from Kim Il Sung’ s and Kim Jong Il ’s policies. Section 3 predicts the impact that sanctions against North Korea will have on its economy. In the mid- and long-term, sanctions against North Korea will inevitably have a negative impact on its economy. However, the short-term impact is likely to depend on how North Korea responds. Section 4 suggests proposals for inter-Korean economic cooperation based on the above discussion.

목차

서언


국문요약


제1장 서론

1. 연구 배경 및 목적
2. 구성 및 자료
    가. 구성
    나. 자료


제2장 북한 산업정책의 변천

1. 대외관계와 발전전략이 산업정책에 갖는 함의
    가. 3대 노선
    나. 선군경제 노선과 경제-핵 병진 노선
    다. 5개년 발전전략
2. 김정은 집권 전후 산업정책
    가. 김정은 시대 북한 산업정책 개관
    나. 김정은 시대 북한 산업정책 특징


제3장 북한의 수입구조 변화와 산업정책

1. 수입과 산업정책
2. 수입의 변동성 분석을 통해 본 산업 및 가계 수요의 변화
    가. 김정은 집권 전후 산업별 변동성 분석
    나. 기술수준별 수입 변동성
    다. 사용목적별 수입 변동성
    라. 사용목적별ㆍ기술수준별 수입 변동성
    마. 사용목적별ㆍ산업별 구성을 통해 본 북한산업의 변화
3. 소결


제4장 북한의 수출구조 변화와 산업정책, 대북제재

1. 수출과 산업정책
2. 수출의 변동성 분석을 통해 본 산업 및 무역 환경의 변화
    가. 김정은 집권 전후 산업별 변동성 분석
    나. 기술수준별 수출 변동성
    다. 사용목적별 수출 변동성
    라. 사용목적별ㆍ기술수준별 수출 변동성
    마. 사용목적별ㆍ산업별 구성을 통해 본 북한산업의 변화
3. 해외 사례분석: 교역환경 변화와 산업ㆍ무역정책 변화
    가. 각국이 직면한 경제 문제
    나. 경제위기에 대응한 산업 및 무역정책 변화
    다. 북한에 주는 시사점
4. 대북제재가 북한경제에 미칠 영향: UNSCR 2321호와 2371호
5. 소결


제5장 결론: 북한경제와 산업정책, 제재, 남북경협

1. 수출입 통계 분석을 통해 본 북한경제
2. 김정은 집권 이후 산업정책의 성과에 대한 평가
3. 대북제재가 북한의 수입에 미칠 영향: UNSCR 2321호와 2371호
4. 북한경제의 회복 가능성과 남북경협에 대한 제언


참고문헌


부록


Executive Summary