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The Effects of US Sectoral Shocks through the World Input-Output Network
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  • The Effects of US Sectoral Shocks through the World Input-Output Network
저자명
Minsoo Han
간행물명
KIEP 연구보고서
권/호정보
2019년|pp.1-44 (44 pages)
발행정보
대외경제정책연구원|한국
파일정보
기타|eng|
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영문초록

In this paper, I estimate the global effects of hypothetical 1% changes in US sectoral productivity. To do that, I formulate a multi-sector Armington trade model with import tariffs, trade in intermediate goods, sectoral heterogeneity, and input-output linkages. Because a closed form for changes in welfare is not available in the model, as opposed to Ossa (2015), I solve for equilibrium to conduct the counterfactual exercises. In particular, knowing that the gravity equations in this model are identical to Caliendo and Parro (2015) once we calibrate the trade elasticity and industry level productivity to the corresponding data, I modify their computation approach to estimate the counterfactual productivity changes. The model predicts that the primary channel through which the sectoral shocks affect welfare is terms of trade. I also find that both US productivity’s direct effect and effects through export prices are substantial for countries such as the US, Canada, Chile, and Mexico. On the other hand, changes in volume of trade are small and their directions of changes are also mixed across countries.

목차



Executive Summary 




1. Introduction 




2. Model and Equilibrium 
2-1. Model 
2-2. Equilibrium
2-3. Solving for an Approximate Equilibrium 




3. The Results




4. Final Remarks 




References

  
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