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Error Forecasting Using Linear Regression Model
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  • Error Forecasting Using Linear Regression Model
저자명
Lian Guey Ler, Byung Sik Kim, Gye Woon Choi, Byung Hwa Kang, Jung Jae Kwang
간행물명
한국습지학회지KCI
권/호정보
2011년|13권 1호(통권34호)|pp.13-23 (11 pages)
발행정보
한국습지학회|한국
파일정보
정기간행물|ENG|
PDF텍스트(0.87MB)
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영문초록

In this study, Mike11 will be used as the numerical model where a data assimilation method will be applied to it. This paper aims to gain an insight and understanding of data assimilation in flood forecasting models. It will start with a general discussion of data assimilation, followed by a description of the methodology and discussion of the statistical error forecast model used, which in this case is the linear regression. This error forecast model is applied to the water level forecast simulated by MIKE11 to produced improved forecast and validated against real measurements. It is found that there exists a phase error in the improved forecasts. Hence, 2 general formula are used to account for this phase error and they have shown improvement to the accuracy of the forecasts, where one improved the immediate forecast of up to 5 hours while the other improved the estimation of the peak discharge.

목차

Abstract
1. Introduction
2. Model Description
3. Data Assimilation
4. Methodology
5. Case Study
6. Conclusion
Acknowledgements
References

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