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An Integrated Modeling Approach for Predicting Potential Epidemics of Bacterial Blossom Blight in Kiwifruit under Climate Change
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  • An Integrated Modeling Approach for Predicting Potential Epidemics of Bacterial Blossom Blight in Kiwifruit under Climate Change
저자명
Kwang-Hyung Kim, Young Jin Koh
간행물명
The Plant Pathology Journal KCI
권/호정보
2019년|35권 5호(통권159호)|pp.459-472 (14 pages)
발행정보
한국식물병리학회|한국
파일정보
정기간행물|ENG|
PDF텍스트(14.25MB)
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영문초록

The increasing variation in climatic conditions under climate change directly influences plant-microbe interactions. To account for as many variables as possible that may play critical roles in such interactions, the use of an integrated modeling approach is necessary. Here, we report for the first time a local impact assessment and adaptation study of future epidemics of kiwifruit bacterial blossom blight (KBB) in Jeonnam province, Korea, using an integrated modeling approach. This study included a series of models that integrated both the phenological responses of kiwifruit and the epidemiological responses of KBB to climatic factors with a 1 km resolution, under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario. Our results indicate that the area suitable for kiwifruit cultivation in Jeonnam province will increase and that the flowering date of kiwifruit will occur increasingly earlier, mainly due to the warming climate. Future epidemics of KBB during the predicted flowering periods were estimated using the Pss-KBB Risk Model over the predicted suitable cultivation regions, and we found location-specific, periodic outbreaks of KBB in the province through 2100. Here, we further suggest a potential, scientifically-informed, long-term adaptation strategy using a cultivar of kiwifruit with a different maturity period to relieve the pressures of future KBB risk. Our results clearly show one of the possible options for a local impact assessment and adaptation study using multiple models in an integrated way.

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Materials and Methods
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