Elementary schools function as civic symbols that play a significant role in fostering bonds among residents, enhancing community connectivity, and promoting the formation of social capital. However, due to declining school-age populations caused by urbanization and low birth rates, elementary school consolidations are taking place across the country. As a result, the right sizing school policy has emerged as a key policy tool in response to the decreasing number of students. This study aims to analyze the impact of elementary school closures on changes in community population. To address the issues of endogeneity in the relationship between school closures and local population change, fixed-effect and random-effect panel models using an instrumental variable approach were applied. The study utilizes time-series data from 2010 to 2023 with dong/myeon units in Gangwon-do serving as the unit of analysis. The presence of more than one elementary school within a dong/myeon was used as an instrumental variable. The results indicate that elementary school closures significantly reduce the number of local residents, parents, and elementary school students. These findings suggest that school consolidation is not solely an educational or fiscal issue but is also closely linked to broader community population dynamics. In an era where concerns about regional extinction due to low birth rates are intensifying, the criteria for school closures should be reconsidered not only from an educational standpoint but also from the perspective of sustaining local communities.