While the need for analyzing and interpreting agricultural logistics are becoming more and more prominent with the rapid changes within the agricultural environment, previously mathematical models have been proved to have its limitations due to the unpredictable traits of agriculture itself and finding the adequate simulation model is not easy. Therefore, in this research, the tank model that has been used to analyze the rainfall-runoff in watersheds, was used to develop a logistics model for estimating shipment by agricultural production. The model was certified by wholesale market data of garlic.