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인공신경망 모형을 이용한 울산공단지역 일 최고 SO2 농도 예측
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  • 인공신경망 모형을 이용한 울산공단지역 일 최고 SO2 농도 예측
저자명
이소영,김유근,오인보,김정규,Lee. So-Young,Kim. Yoo-Keun,Oh. In-Bo,Kim. Jung-Kyu
간행물명
한국환경과학회지
권/호정보
2009년|18권 2호|pp.129-139 (11 pages)
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한국환경과학회
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이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
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기타언어초록

Development of an artificial neural network model was presented to predict the daily maximum $SO_2$ concentration in the urban-industrial area of Ulsan. The network model was trained during April through September for 2000-2005 using $SO_2$ potential parameters estimated from meteorological and air quality data which are closely related to daily maximum $SO_2$ concentrations. Meteorological data were obtained from regional modeling results, upper air soundings and surface field measurements and were then used to create the $SO_2$ potential parameters such as synoptic conditions, mixing heights, atmospheric stabilities, and surface conditions. In particular, two-stage clustering techniques were used to identify potential index representing major synoptic conditions associated with high $SO_2$ concentration. Two neural network models were developed and tested in different conditions for prediction: the first model was set up to predict daily maximum $SO_2$ at 5 PM on the previous day, and the second was 10 AM for a given forecast day using an additional potential factors related with urban emissions in the early morning. The results showed that the developed models can predict the daily maximum $SO_2$ concentrations with good simulation accuracy of 87% and 96% for the first and second model. respectively, but the limitation of predictive capability was found at a higher or lower concentrations. The increased accuracy for the second model demonstrates that improvements can be made by utilizing more recent air quality data for initialization of the model.