When designing the size of a heavy maintenance shop for rolling stock, it is required to arrange buildings and facilities in the minimum site so as to improve the maintenance efficiency. However, the fluctuation rate (hereinafter "allowance rate") on which factors such as service and maintenance fluctuation should be applied when estimating the size of the maintenance shop has been used without verification. The objective of the study is to calculate a reasonable allowance rate and to review its appropriateness through the analysis of the facilities layout and process simulation to absorb the above elements into the staying time in the heavy maintenance shop. Since the working time, in this study, is assumed to be average working time, 10~20% was given to the standard deviation of working time in consideration of difference between workers, and possible allowance rate was drawn by analysis of the simulation results. In the future, it is required to optimize the size of the shop by applying appropriate allowance rate through scientific review of such factors as O&M plan, R/S reserve rate, capability of the shop, outsourcing rate, standard work amount, and so on.