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농업가뭄대응을 위한 가뭄기상시나리오 모델 개발 및 적용
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  • 농업가뭄대응을 위한 가뭄기상시나리오 모델 개발 및 적용
저자명
유승환,최진용,남원호,김태곤,고광돈,Yoo. Seung-Hwan,Choi. Jin-Yong,Nam. Won-Ho,Kim. Tae-Gon,Go. Gwang-Don
간행물명
한국농공학회논문집
권/호정보
2012년|54권 2호|pp.67-75 (9 pages)
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한국농공학회
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정기간행물|
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이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
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기타언어초록

Different from other natural hazards including floods, drought advances slowly and spreads widely, so that the preparedness is quite important and effective to mitigate the impacts from drought. Evaluation and forecast the status of drought for the present and future utilizing the meteorological scenario for agricultural drought can be useful to set a plan for agricultural drought mitigation in agriculture water resource management. In this study, drought climate scenario model on the basis of historical drought records for preparing agricultural drought mitigation was developed. To consider dependency and correlation between various climate variables, this model was utilized the historical climate pattern using reference year setting of four drought levels. The reference year for drought level was determined based on the frequency analysis result of monthly effective rainfall. On the basis of this model, drought climate scenarios at Suwon and Icheon station were set up and these scenarios were applied on the water balance simulation of reservoir water storage for Madun reservoir as well as the soil moisture model for Gosam reservoir watershed. The results showed that drought climate scenarios in this study could be more useful for long-term forecast of longer than 2~3 months period rather than short-term forecast of below one month.