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확률분포에 따른 불확실한 변수를 고려한 위험도기반의 정성적 평가
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  • 확률분포에 따른 불확실한 변수를 고려한 위험도기반의 정성적 평가
저자명
허호진,정재욱,김주동,최재붕,최송천,황인주,Heo. Ho-Jin,Jeong. Jae-Uk,Kim. Joo-Dong,Choi. Jae-Boong,Choi. Song-Chun,Hwang. In-Ju
간행물명
설비공학논문집
권/호정보
2013년|25권 2호|pp.70-78 (9 pages)
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이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
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기타언어초록

Plants which are having conditions of high temperature and pressure always are exposed to danger. In order to prevent unexpected accidents, safety management that can effectively and appropriately examine facilities is required in plant operation. RBI(Risk-Based Inspection) technology in API 581 is one of standard management technique for evaluating risk on petroleum plants. There are qualitative and quantitative assessments in RBI methodology. Quantitative evaluation step is complex and required much information, so high-risk facilities in plant are selected firstly by qualitative method. Qualitative RBI is performed by choosing the answer in prepared questionnaire. However, it is difficult to believe thoroughly results from survey including ambiguous information. In this study, the procedure of qualitative RBI analysis with considering probability distribution concept were proposed by using Monte Carlo simulation method in order to increase reliability in spite of uncertain factors. In addition, qualitative risk of cooling system for LNG plant was evaluated using proposed procedure. Although 20 items of total 39 assessment items are applied to uncertain factors, risk section of high probability(89%) were verified. The detailed results were described in manuscript.