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  • SD모형을 이용한 무선인터넷 시장 동태성 연구
  • A study on the Dynamics of Mobile Internet Market via System Dynamics Approach
저자명
박상현,연승준,김상욱
간행물명
한국 시스템 다이내믹스 연구
권/호정보
2001년|2권 2호|pp.41-62 (22 pages)
발행정보
한국시스템다이내믹스학회
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이 논문은 한국과학기술정보연구원과 논문 연계를 통해 무료로 제공되는 원문입니다.
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기타언어초록

Perhaps, one of the typical emerging markets drawing tremendous attention from not only business professionals but also policy-makers would be the mobile Internet services. In recent years many research institutes reported their predictions on the growth of the mobile Internet services market, announcing that the market would show explosive growth and replace the wired Internet service market rapidly. Unfortunately, however, the reality we are facing at present is quite different from their expectations. The realized share of the mobile services in Korea last year has turned out remaining only about one percent of the total network service revenue. What are the reasons for the gap between the prospects and the reality? Starting from this question, this paper attempts to explore the generic pitfalls of the traditional number-crunching methods adopted thus far for the forecast of newly emerging market trends, and present an alternative by introducing systems thinking to the mobile Internet service market as an example, followed by its rationale as a new tool for forecasting and some reasoning about why traditional methods are no longer appropriate.